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Chancing It: The Laws of Chance and How They Can Work for You

Chancing It: The Laws of Chance and How They Can Work for You

作者 : Robert Matthews

出版社 : PROFILE BOOKS LTD

可訂購

定價 : NT 550

售價9折, NT495

內容簡介


科學家兼科普作家羅伯特.馬修斯(Robert Matthews)教您如何有效使用「概率定律」,輕鬆掌握運氣與機率的法則!

氣象預報與選舉結果預測,到底有多準確?
買保險時,該如何判斷是否值得一買?
如何理解醫學檢驗與科學「突破」?
如何判斷「專家鑑定」是否可信?

日常生活中充滿運氣、風險與不確定性。讓人難以相信的好運氣、詭異的巧合,常帶來耐人尋味的結果。它們看似讓人無法掌握、不合常理,大多讓人感到困惑、氣餒,甚至可能引發焦慮。當一連串詭異事件發生時,只不過是單純巧合,或代表了什麼更重要的意義?

作者介紹「概率定律」(the laws of probability),搭配真實案例佐證,從擲硬幣到俄羅斯輪盤,告訴您看似難以掌握的一切,其實有跡可循。閱讀完本書,您將能做出更明智的決定、將運氣把握到極致、甚至可能改變人生!

Everyone who's had to get to grips with chance knows how tricky even its simplest manifestations can be. Its workings are a constant challenge to common sense: a run of luck goes bad just when you trust it; expert predictions of everything from the weather to elections prove hopelessly unreliable; proven health advice turns out to be anything but.

Award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows us how we can cut through the conundrums of chance. He gives us access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed, and explains how we can use them to guide our judgements and decisions. By the end of the book you'll know:

-The secret to predicting coincidences;
-The golden rule of professional gamblers;
-How to tell when insurance is a waste of money;
-When to heed health and diet warnings - and when to ignore them;
-How to tell when forecasts are worth taking seriously;
-How to make better choices in the face of uncertainty.

Using a host of real-life examples, this groundbreaking book shows how the laws of probability can sharpen your decisions, make the most of your luck - and quite possibly transform your life.
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