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The Perfect Bet: Taking the Luck out of Gambling

The Perfect Bet: Taking the Luck out of Gambling

作者 : Adam Kucharski

出版社 : PROFILE BOOKS LTD

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定價 : NT 495

售價79折, NT391

內容簡介


關於賭局,所有人都知道的真相:莊家永遠是最大贏家;設計樂透彩的目的是使國家獲利;擲骰遊戲是早就設定好的賭局,想獲勝除非自己就是賭局設立者,也因此造就過去500年來,仍有許多數學家和科學家試圖解開賭桌下的秘密。身為數學家的作者Adam Kucharski,大膽揭發了賭局設計中驚人的秘密,透過設計賭局的過程,善用數學與科學來達到最完美的賭局。從伽利略到圖靈,賭博一直是科學家與數學家激發靈感的主要來源:16世紀因為酒吧的擲骰遊戲而誕生機率理論,撲克牌的賽局理論(數學家約翰‧馮‧諾伊曼就將此概念運用在數學上),及日後偉大的人工智慧發明。

作者分享各式各樣的賭局研究實驗家,包括數學家為了理解硬幣翻轉次數是否均等,因此做了25,000的實驗;香港歡樂谷集團如何將賽馬賭博轉變為擁有數十億美元的產業;大學生利用運算樂透彩獲利百萬美元。作者對於數字的靈敏度與精彩敘事手法,揭開博弈歷史與科學之間的糾結、莊家永不失敗的秘密,及透過科學手法尋找最完美的賭局。

Gamblers have been trying to figure out how to game the system since our ancestors first made wagers over dice fashioned from knucklebones: in revolutionary Paris, the 'martingale' strategy was rumoured to lead to foolproof success at roulette ; today, professional gamblers are using cutting-edge techniques to tilt the odds in their favour. Science is giving us the competitive edge over opponents, casinos and bookmakers. But is there such a thing as a perfect bet?

The Perfect Bet looks beyond probability and statistics to examine how wagers have inspired a plethora of new disciplines - spanning chaos theory, machine learning and game theory - which are not just revolutionising gambling, but changing our fundamental notions about chance, randomness and luck.

Explaining why poker is gaming's last bastion of human superiority over AI, how methods originally developed for the US nuclear programme are helping pundits predict sports results and why a new breed of algorithms are losing banks millions, The Perfect Bet has the inside track on any wager you'd care to place.
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